For the first time in recent history, PJM could face decreasing reserve margins should these trends – high load growth, increasing rates of generator retirements, and slower entry of new resources – continue. The amount of generation retirements appears to be more certain than the timely arrival of replacement generation resources, given that the quantity of retirements is codified in various policy objectives, while the impacts to the pace of new entry of the Inflation Reduction Act, post-pandemic supply chain issues, and other externalities are still not fully understood.

Maintaining an adequate level of generation resources, with the right operational and physical characteristics, is essential for PJM’s ability to serve electrical demand through the energy transition.
Our research highlights four trends below that we believe, in combination, present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry under a possible “low new entry” scenario:

The growth rate of electricity demand is likely to continue to increase from electrification coupled with the proliferation of high-demand data centers in the region.

Thermal generators are retiring at a rapid pace due to government and private sector policies as well as economics.

Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known.

PJM’s interconnection queue is composed primarily of intermittent and limited-duration resources. Given the operating characteristics of these resources, we need multiple megawatts of these resources to replace 1 MW of thermal generation.

PJM cautions against approaching this analysis based on a ‘top down’ analysis based on what appears to be an attempt at optimizing the deployment of renewables across the nation.

New transmission advances clean energy goals by enabling greater access to clean energy resources, which can be in remote areas, far from load and the existing transmission system.

Transmission projects also frequently face public opposition or “not-in-my-backyard” concerns for various reasons. These challenges can lead to increased costs, schedule delays, or even project cancellations.

A significant portion of the higher congestion noted in the Report is associated with multiple transmission outages in support of approved upgrades. As a result, the congestion listed should not necessarily be considered a persistent level of congestion in the Mid-Atlantic.

The study was warmly welcomed by Chicago-based Invenergy LLC, developer of the proposed $7 billion Green Belt Express line that could help carry up to 5,000 MW of Great Plains wind power to Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic population centers.
A key 530-mile segment of the line, running from Kansas to central Missouri, is a candidate for a federal loan guarantee, according to DOE — one of the new or strengthened transmission initiatives provided for DOE in the infrastructure act.

“We are encouraged by the findings of the draft study which underscore the critical need for interregional transmission to deliver cost-effective generation, meet projected demand growth and usage shifts, and improve reliability and resilience, especially in the face of increasing extreme weather events, cybersecurity risks, and physical threats,” said Shashank Sane, Invenergy executive vice president for transmission, in a statement.
“The draft study rightly focuses on identifying market barriers to interregional transmission development to accelerate deployment of clean energy,” he added.

Now more than ever, we need strong environmental review and public engagement processes to avoid harming communities while effectively speeding up development of much-needed infrastructure to enable a rapid clean energy transition.

A recent study from MIT concludes that a significant hurdle in developing clean energy infrastructure projects is local opposition --and early community engagement can avoid delays or cancellations. To address this major slow down and to ensure that our new transmission is developed in an equitable manner, we must work with the very communities that our infrastructure is supposed to serve and not against them.

1. Public Participation: Local residents (their legislative representatives and public agencies) oppose projects in which they believe their worries are not adequately being attended to by the developer.
   
   

Data shows the public, including communities hosting wind and solar projects, approve of renewables and want more of them.

Unfortunately, proposed wind and solar projects have faced an avalanche of local opposition in recent years...

Unfortunately, proposed wind and solar projects have faced an avalanche of local opposition in recent years, often based on misinformation or outright fallacies. Opposition groups, following a playbook organized by a fossil-funded think tank, spread fallacies about impacts to wildlife, property values, health, and more, sowing fear and anger.

Perhaps the most noteworthy transmission project in NextEra's portfolio is the Oklahoma/Arkansas portion of the Plains and Eastern Clean Line high-voltage direct-current, or HVDC, project. The project has had a tumultuous history, with the Tennessee Valley Authority backing away from the project in 2017 and the Energy Department terminating its participation in 2018. NextEra acquired Plains and Eastern Clean Line Oklahoma LLC in late 2017. Connecting Oklahoma and the state's formidable wind generation to Tennessee, the line would help alleviate growing wind curtailment in SPP while delivering potentially low-cost wind energy to the Southeast region. The project's status is up in the air.

HVDC transmission lines such as the Plains and Eastern Clean Line could emerge as a crucial piece of the clean energy transition. Although typically more costly than their AC counterparts, HVDC lines can carry more capacity across long distances while mitigating electricity losses, allowing for the transfer of wind and solar power from sparsely populated regions to urban metropolises hundreds of miles away. The Plains and Eastern Clean Line would run 720 miles and carry more than 4,000 MW of energy.

Additionally, a handful of major HVDC transmission projects are in planning, with renewable integration and transmission serving as a major driver for their development. The 550-mile SunZia Southwest Transmission Project being developed by Pattern Energy Group LP would connect Arizona to New Mexico, which has become a hub for renewable energy development. The 780-mile Grain Belt Express transmission line runs from Kansas to Indiana, eventually hooking up with the Pioneer Transmission project. Being developed by Invenergy LLC, the $7 billion project is expected to have a potential capacity of 5,000 MW.

MISO recently announced a major transmission upgrade project expected to cost $10.3 billion. The undertaking involves upgrading 18 different transmission lines and will reportedly help support 53 GW of new wind, solar and battery storage capacity across the region.

The remaining phases of the Project ("Segments 2 and 3") are under evaluation by MISO and PJM as part of the next planning review cycles.

Major transmission projects, particularly those that span multiple states, get caught up in arduous siting and permitting processes. The Grain Belt Express project, for instance, has been in the making for over a decade now. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is taking steps to ameliorate these preliminary planning hurdles. Still, without continuous diligent efforts to expedite grid infrastructure upgrades, industry stakeholders will struggle to meet state and federal clean energy goals.

On the supply side in PJM, "we're seeing dramatic retirements" of coal-fired generation, with PJM retiring about 15 GW of coal in the next two years that it is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis, Thomas said.
The Midcontinent System Operator is experiencing a similar trend, with incremental generation resources being added that do not have the same reliability attributes as those being retired. "They are adding megawatts that are less valuable than the megawatts being retired, meaning they need to add significant multiples to replace what's being retired," he said.
In MISO, the accredited capacity being added goes down out to 2041, while the future load scenarios continue to go up.

"This is kind of a fascinating trend, and arguably not a sustainable trend, because what all these other regions are counting on is importing power from other areas of the country to make up the difference and that's a house of cards waiting to fall," Thomas said.
PJM is not one of the areas identified by the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation, an international regulatory authority, as having reliability concerns, but "they're coming in a big way," he said.
The PJM interconnection queue of resources planning to connect to the grid is 95%, if not more, wind and solar power resources, which is where the economic signals are right now.
"There is going to be very little to no new natural gas coming into the system and coal is going to continue to retire" with the nuclear power resources remaining because they are subsidized at the state and federal level, Thomas said.

One of the core tenets of the PJM capacity market is that in order to have capacity it must be deliverable. A megawatt of power on the system only has value if it can be delivered at peak demand periods, Thomas said.
PJM has been giving capacity accreditation to intermittent resources above their approved capacity injection rights levels, so these resources were selling capacity that was not deliverable, and that is a problem, he said.

The problematic aspect is consumers have been paying for capacity that has no value at peak, and suppliers "are getting boxed out of the market by these undeliverable megawatts," Thomas said.

“As we look to the future, we worry that federal and state policies, as well as market changes, are causing an imbalance of electric supply and demand that jeopardizes our ability to fulfill this commitment.”

“Put simply, this is because generation capacity has been reduced while peak demand is projected to increase—decreasing supply while increasing demand,” he said. “A concerning pattern is forming in which baseload generation such as natural gas, coal and nuclear energy is prematurely retired and then replaced primarily by intermittent generation like wind and solar.”

But preventing outages is only getting harder as fossil fuel emissions heat the planet, extreme drought drains hydropower reservoirs and worsening wildfires disrupt power lines.

The growing threat of power outages fueled by extreme weather calls for new approaches to grid oversight, the head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said yesterday, adding that utilities and grid operators should “think differently.”
In the face of droughts and heat waves worsened by climate change, the commission must advance new policies to modernize power markets, build more transmission lines and safeguard energy infrastructure, said FERC Chair Richard Glick. Regulators, energy providers and others also need to adjust to the “new normal” as extreme weather events become more common, according to Glick.
“The old way doesn’t work anymore. We need to figure out a new approach, a much more reliable approach, and that’s what we’re trying to do here at FERC,” he said.

While Glick, a Democrat, said the FERC report underscored the need for more transmission lines and changes in U.S. power markets, Republican commissioners highlighted how retiring fossil fuel power plants may be exacerbating reliability challenges.

The Midwestern grid region, for example, is at a “high risk” of power shortfalls due to a decline in generation capacity this year relative to last year. Power shortfalls could occur during extreme temperatures, during periods of low wind power or in the event of generation outages in the coming months, FERC staff said in a presentation on the findings.

The staff analysis showcased the need for more natural gas infrastructure to support generators, and for regulators to address state energy policies that are “reliability-impairing,” said Republican Commissioner James Danly. He also questioned whether more investments in the electric transmission system would solve the reliability challenges.

“There is, in the minds of some, an idea that as long as we get the transmission issue correct, everything else will eventually solve itself. I am simply a skeptic,” Danly said.

“There is clear, objective, conclusive data indicating that the pace of our grid transformation is out of sync with the underlying realities and physics of our system,” Christie said.

The RTO said all summer months will require emergency resources to meet peak load conditions. Using a probable peak load forecast, MISO said it has 116 GW of firm resources to cover a 116-GW peak in June, an insufficient 119 GW to tackle a 124-GW peak in July and another 119 GW that will be no match for August’s 121-GW peak forecast.

The RTO said it could be in even worse shape if it encounters higher-than-normal temperatures coupled with a high level of generation outages. The grid operator said it’s possible it will find itself depleting all emergency resources and still coming up a few gigawatts short over all three months. In a worst-case scenario, MISO could have a little less than 114 GW in firm capacity and a daunting 131-GW demand during the July peak. In that case, it would be about 5 GW short after all firm and emergency resources are factored in.

MISO last week warned that even a normal amount of demand and generation outages will likely send it into emergency procedures this summer.
The RTO also didn’t rule out summertime load shedding during combinations of high demand and high generation outages.

The grid operator said it will probably rely on a combination of emergency resources and non-firm energy imports from neighbors to maintain system reliability in June, July and August.

A subsidiary of one of the largest U.S. providers of renewable energy pleaded guilty to criminal charges and was ordered to pay over $8 million in fines and restitution after at least 150 eagles were killed at its wind farms in eight states, federal prosecutors said Wednesday.

NextEra Energy subsidiary ESI Energy was also sentenced to five years probation after being charged with three counts of violating the Migratory Bird Treaty Act during a court appearance in Cheyenne, Wyoming. The charges arose from the deaths of nine eagles at three wind farms in Wyoming and New Mexico.